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Water Resources Planning Organization
Secretariat to Executive Committee of National Water Resources Council
Scenario Development and IWRM » Work package 3: Staff Training

Work Package-3
A. PhD Training:
There will be 4 PhD training opportunities, one for each organization. The field of interest has been selected during the inception phase and some detail was agreed in the subsequent workshops. BAU candidate would research on Water and Food, CEGIS candidate on Coastal Evolution, Geomorphology and Sediments, WARPO candidates’ on Water functions and land use: scenarios and global change impacts and BUET on flood.


1. The PhD research title of Kazi Saidur Rahman is Assessment of Future Water Availability in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) DeltaSupervised by Dr. Fulco Ludwig Associate professor Earth System Science, WUR.
PhD Project Summary:
Bangladesh is a low-lying delta, situated in the lowest part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin. The hydrological cycle of the GBM basin is governed by tropical monsoon climate characterized by large seasonal variation in rainfall and high temperatures. Future climate change could exacerbate the seasonal variation which could result into less water flow during dry season and more water flow during the monsoon season. The inadequate supply of water in the GBM river system during dry season has already caused significant socio-economic impacts by affecting agriculture, fisheries, forestry, navigation and enhancing salinity intrusion in Bangladesh. In addition to the impacts of climate change, upstream interventions such as dams, reservoirs and irrigation schemes in the GBM basin could also reduce dry season flows.
Therefore, the interaction between climate change on other anthropogenic impacts could have a large impact on the future dry season flow. To assess future dry season water availability in the GBM river system it is necessary to integrates multiple driving factors such as climate change, socio-economic change and upstream infrastructure development. This will result in much more comprehensive knowledge about the dynamics of future hydrological changes in the GBM basin. Therefore, the main research objective of this PhD project is to assess the future water availability in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta considering probable future scenarios based on the combined impacts of climate change, upstream development and socio-economic change.
Expected outcomes of this project are:
1. A hydrological modelling framework for the GBM basin including current and future infrastructure development.
2. Scenarios for future flow regimes of the GBM basin under climate and socio-economic change.
3. Impact assessment of water diversion on future water availability and future strategy development in the lower GBM basin.


2. The PhD Research title of Tapos Kumar Acharjee is “Future Irrigation Water Requirements in the Northwest Zone of Bangladesh: Developing Scenarios and Analysing Adaptation Strategies” supervised by Dr. Fulco Ludwig Associate professor Earth System Science, WUR.
PhD Project Summary:
Climate is one of the most important factors that determine the amount of water needed to successfully cultivate crops. Bangladesh is expected to be severely affected by climate change, and water could be the most vulnerable sector. Climate change induced change in crop water demand may lead to a critical situation if proper concern is not given in the right time. Changes in crop area as a consequence of population growth, urbanization and industrial growth will also affect the amount of water needed for irrigation. The probable changes in irrigation water requirement due to climate and irrigated area change have attracted comparatively less scientific attraction than floods or cyclones in Bangladesh. However, this probable change may result in an imbalance between water demand and availability in the North-western part of the country as this part is already suffering from water shortages in the dry periods. Groundwater resources, which is the main source for irrigation, are already showing declining trends in the North-western part. More water will be needed for domestic and industrial use because of population growth and economic development. Furthermore, more water will be required to increase food production for a growing population. However, water availability is limited and expected to be less available during the dry periods in the future according to some studies. Thus, this research work will develop future scenarios of irrigation water requirements for the dry periods, developing proper adaptation strategies to cope with the changed climatic situations for better water demand management, and evaluating the ability of adaptation options to improve future water demand management with their scope and limitations for implementing at local level.
Objectives:

  • To identify the possible future changes of local agro-climatic conditions.
  • To identify the possible future changes in crop area and irrigated area as a consequence of population growth, urbanization and industrial development.
  •  To determine quantitatively the expected changes in irrigation water requirement for different combined scenarios of climate and irrigated crop land.
  • To identify possible adaptation strategies for the North-west zone of Bangladesh.
  • To evaluate the ability of adaptation strategies to improve future water demand management with their scope and limitation for implementing at local level.

Methodology:

  • Step 1: Climate change analysis: Two RCP Scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) will be utilized to project the future climate scenarios of local agro-climatic condition.
  • Step 2: Land use change analysis: The land use pattern will be identified from satellite imagery data. Using population and economic growth projections from other studies and considering future scope of expanding irrigation facilities, the future crop and irrigated area change will be estimated.
  • Step 3: Development of future irrigation water requirement scenarios: The future irrigation water requirements for major dry season cropping patterns under changed climatic conditions will be estimated using FAO’s CROPWAT 8.0.
  • Step 4: Identification of possible adaptation strategies: Adaptation options will be identified by literature review and stakeholders interview. Adaptation options will be ranked using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA).
  • Step 5: Evaluation of the ability of different strategies: An intensive field investigation will be carried out to find out scope and limitations for implementing different options at local level.

Expected Outputs:

  • Future scenarios of regional climate for the North-west zone of Bangladesh.
  • Identifications of future land use change for irrigated−non-irrigated and rice−non-rice crop area.
  • Future scenarios of Irrigation water requirements for major dry period crops.
  • Adaptation options and policy indications for better future water demand management.


3. The PhD research title ofJakia Akter is“Decade to century scale geo-morphological development of the Bangladesh delta”supervised by Dr. Ir. Ioana Popescu (Associate Professor, UNESCO‐IHE).
PhD Project Summary:
Bangladesh, a major part of the Bengal basin, which is one of the world's largest and most populated deltas, has highly vulnerable coastal environment due to its low‐lying floodplains. The Ganges‐Brahmaputra is one of the three largest riverine sources of water and sediment for the world’s oceans, and has developed the delta to its present form about 100,000 km2. About one trillion cubic meter water with one billion tonnes of sediment makes the system morphologically very active. The delta is an active tide‐dominated delta and progrades at a rate of 17 km2/yr in the last five decades; whereas most of the deltas are suffering from sediment starvation. Delta progradation always makes the river system unstable and dynamic causing the delta to become very dynamic with rapid changes. Many studies have been carried out on the delta development in millennium timescale, but few on decade to century scale delta development. Short time scale prediction is required for getting prepared against the unwanted hostile response of the processes to unavoidable circumstances. Erosion in the moribund delta and accretion in the active delta, hydro‐morphological connectivity to the back swamp area in between Ganges floodplain and tidal plain area, and salinity intrusion along with high subsidence rate in the west have made the physical processes very complex. On the other hand, the delta has been prograding in the eastern part with a high rate, which may have caused river shifting or avulsion. However, a newly developed river itself developed its natural levee. Thus changes in one process initiate some other alterations in processes. Therefore, all these processes made the delta very dynamic and possibly unpredictable. A process response model is required for long‐term planning and is the focus of this study; though at this stage it is uncertain to what extent it can capture the full complexity.
Methodology:
All identified natural and anthropogenic drivers will be incorporated in the delta model, preferably Delft 3D, using land bathymetry from digital elevation model of 1950s, and river and estuary bathymetry, along with time series hydro‐morphological data. The goal of this research is to enhance knowledge on the century to decade‐scale development processes of the Bengal delta and its response to future changes for predicting future threats. A process response conceptual model will be developed which would predict the dynamic system to make the delta plan sustainable for a longer period.
Based on updated hydro‐morphological data and knowledge of the hydrological, hydrogelogical, geological characteristics of the Bangladesh delta, a process response model, preferably the Delft3D model, will be used. With the complete domain or after doing domain composition, the prevailing processes on the delta will be simulated for carrying out this research. The main target of this research is to understand the processes and their interrelations about the actual situation. The process response numerical model will be developed to serve as a predictive tool for future delta development, including the predefined scenarios of sediment production in the upstream and supply to the river systems with unequivocal sea level rise.
Time Schedule:
The PhD research will be completed within 4 years periods. Every year approximately six months will be spent at UNESCO‐IHE and rest of the time of the research will be conducted in Bangladesh, the study area and home country.

B. MSc Training:

There will be 16 MSc in total, 8 will be national and other 8 will be international. In principle 4 staff members from each organization will be trained at the MSc level. Tentatively 2 candidates from BUET will be doing MSc on the topic of Flood Risk and Uncertainty, 1 candidate on Geomorphology and Sediments and 1 candidate on the topic of Scenarios, Land-use and Planning.  From CEGIS 1 candidate will do MSc under Flood Risk and Uncertainty, 2 candidate will be in Geomorphology and Sediments and 1 candidate will be under Scenarios, Land use and Planning. From BAU all candidates will be doing MScs under the topic of Water and Food. From WARPO 1 candidate will be doing MSc under Flood Risk and Uncertainty, 1 candidate will be on Geomorphology and Sediments and the other 2 candidates will be doing MSc on Scenarios, Land-use and Planning topics.

 

   List of MSc students (National & International) under Nuffic-NICHE BGD-155 Project

Sl

Name of the student 

Title of the MSc thesis

Organization/institute

Name of the supervisor

Email & contact no

Progress

                                                          National MSc

 

 

1

Rounak Afroz

Experimental And Numerical Investigation On Wave Interaction With Horizontal Slotted Submerged Porous breakwater

DWRE, BUET

Dr. Md. Ataur Rahman

Professor, DWRE, BUET

rounak@wre.buet.ac.bd

Completed

2

Sarfaraz Alam

 

Study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Brahmaputra River Basin

DWRE, BUET

Dr. Md. Mostafa Ali,

Associate Professor, DWRE, BUET

sarfaraz@wre.buet.ac.bd

 

Completed

3

Tasnuva Rouf

 

Development Of Flood Inundation Map Of Sirajgonj District Using Mathematical Model

DWRE, BUET

Dr. Md. Sabbir Mostafa Khan

Professor, DWRE, BUET

tasnuva@wre.buet.ac.bd

Completed

4

Tanzim Ahmed

Experimental Study on Placement of Toe Protection Elements of River Bank Protection Works Under Live Bed Condition”

DWRE, BUET

Dr. Md. Abdul Matin

Professor, DWRE, BUET

tanzim@wre.buet.ac.bd

 

Completed

5

Md. Arifur Rahman

Study on Effectiveness of Coastal Bio-shield for Reduction of the Energy of High Frequency Surges

DWRE, BUET

Dr. Md. Mostafa Ali,

Associate Professor, DWRE, BUET

arifur@wre.buet.ac.bd

 

Completed

6

Mohammad Imran Hasan

Modelling the Flood Behavior of Upper Meghna River

CEGIS         

Dr. Umme Kulsum Navera,

Professor, DWRE, BUET

hasanbdimran@gmail.com,

01912683530

Completed

                                                        International MSc

 

 

1

A.K.M. Khusrul Amin

Land Use Change and its Drivers in Northwest Bangladesh

 WARPO

Dr Fulco Ludwig, Associate Professor,

Earth System Science Group, Wageningen University, Netherlands.

khusrulamin@yahoo.com

 01718488955

Completed

2

Sudipta Kumar Hore

Drought Characterization Using Ground and Remote Sensing Data

CEGIS

Prof. Arthur Mynett, ScD, MSc (UNESCO-IHE)

 

skhore@cegisbd.com  

Completed

3

Shariot ullah

Scenarios of future crop water demand for boro rice due to climate change in Rajshahi, north-western district of Bangladesh

 

BAU

 Supervisor

dr. ir. GE (Gerardo) van Halsema

Water Resources Management Group

msu_iwm@bau.edu.bd

Final stage

4

Md. Jamal Haider

Water Science & Engineering specialization in Hydrology and Water Resource, USESCO-IHE

WARPO

 

sco_gw1@warpo.gov.bd

 

Started October, 2015

5

Md. Mizanur Rahman

Hydraulic Engineering and River Basin Development - Specialization in Water Science and Engineering, UNESCO-IHE

CEGIS

 

rahman63@unesco-ihe.org

Started October, 2015

 

C. Short courses: There are 32 short courses, 16 of the courses will be national and rest of 16 will be international.

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Use of Scenarios development in Bangladesh
NICHE 155 project
Work package 1: Curriculum Development
Work package 2: Collaborative Research
Work package 3: Staff Training
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